With Chinese President Xi Jinping in town, it’s been a big week for all things cyber and U.S.-China relations.
To start things off, Jack reflected on Xi’s remark that “hacking against government networks” is a crime “that must be punished in accordance with law and relevant international treaties” and surmised that “there is no reason to think China will unilaterally back down in its cyber-operations against the United States.” He suggested that U.S. adversaries will not cease cyberactivities that the United States considers offensive without a similar reduction in U.S. cyberactivities that they consider detrimental.
Jack also discussed the potential first U.S. China cyber arms agreement that would aim to “prohibit first-use strikes on critical infrastructure.” Cautioning us against being excited, he pointed out that any such agreement would not alter the status quo of China’s “widespread espionage and theft,” largely considered the most troubling aspect to the United States. Raising the questions of what exactly would qualify as “critical infrastructure” and how exactly any such agreement would be verified, Jack likened the potential deal to a more technically challenging and less verifiable version of the Iran Deal–which for its part faced its own difficulty in Congress.
Unlike Jack, Herb Lin found more to be excited about in a potential cyber arms deal. He suggested that by embracing the June 2015 recommendations made by the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security, the two nations could improve cyber relations.
Elaine Korzak shed light on the GGE report and its implications on the future of stability and conflict prevention in cyberspace. While the GGE establishes important cyber norms, Elaine suggests that the report indicates that any norm-setting power attributed to the report remains unclear and that “any remaining room for consensus, particularly with regard to the application of international law, has been exhausted.”
Paul Rosenzweig expressed intense relief after the White House declared that the United States and China agreed not to “conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information, with the intent of providing competitive advantages to companies or commercial sectors.” He wondered “why we didn’t do that before.” Herb also reacted to the White House’s announcements but, once again, took a slightly more optimistic view. With an acknowledgement from China that intellectual property theft for commercial purposes is bad, Herb suggested that the endorsement for the aforementioned GGE forum for cybersecurity marked a step in the right direction.
Jack also analyzed the White House release and asks what gives. He asked what might underlie China’s acceptance of the U.S. position that cybertheft of intellectual property is wrong and suggested three possible answers.
Stewart Baker did a deep dive into President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington and interviewed Margie Gilbert on this week’s Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast. In what he terms the “he said, Xi said” issue, Stewart discussed whether the United States should settle on the aforementioned minimal potential cyber agreement against. Margie Gilbert talked about the difficulty the United States faces in fending off network intrusions.
Zack Bluestone introduced “Water Wars,” a weekly roundup of the latest news, analysis, and opinions related to ongoing tensions in the South and East China Seas. He featured Xi’s visit to America in this first issue. He followed up the initial post by highlighting two key passages from Presidents Obama’s and Xi’s joint press conference with Obama elaborating upon the American understanding of bilateral relations in the Asian Pacific and Xi discussing common maritime interests in the South China Sea.
Paul also shared updates in the world of cyber warfare; he discusses the potential first cyber arms control deal between the U.S. and China, waning levels of Chinese cyber attacks on eve of Xi’s visit, Russian government-backed groups hacking NATO, and Obama’s classification of cyber as a core national security threat.
Ben posted the “Je Suis Francis” edition in the latest Rational Security podcast. The podcast discusses Russia’s intervention in Syria, the U.S.-China potential cyber arms treaty, the closure of Guantanamo Bay, and the critically essential, long-haired Edward Snowden.
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